100.9 Million Reasons Cable TV Won't Die Soon

In 2011 I started my first blog series called "Refocus Blog." It was a blog just like this one (but with more rants!) I post this on my current COMMotion Blog because it's good to see how my communications career progressed, and how the communications field has changed.

Written May 24, 2012 - Refocus Blog.

Due to my background in Public and Government relations, I subscribe to various communications groups and continue to maintain my alliances with many of the organizations I was involved with during my time in the Government sector. These days, a discussion among these entities has centered on a familiar question – will cable TV be around in the next 10 years? This question arises from the growing trend of online video consumption among the public. With the surge in iPad and mobile device usage, it’s a concern that lingers on everyone’s mind.

During my tenure at Pitt County Government, I had the privilege of being its Cable Coordinator. My job was to monitor and assess the cable companies within Pitt County’s jurisdiction; moreover, align the franchises so they would be an asset to the citizenry. I successfully negotiated three (3) franchise agreements and helped restructure Pitt County’s cable ordinance. I was very lucky in that most counties only have one franchise to contend with; Pitt County had four. Which doesn’t make me an expert, but it does make me well-versed enough to contribute to this conversation.

If you’re just here for my bottom line (and haven’t tuned out already!), my answer is an unequivocal YES—cable TV will remain relevant over the next ten years. Here are four reasons why:

1. The tremendous ability of Cable companies to diversify

2. The cable companies' market footprint

3. Bandwidth

4. One word – Lobbyists

Diversify

Cable TV emerged in the mid-1940s with a simple goal: to improve reception. Early systems used basic antennas mounted on high points or poles in a community, then ran a cable from the antenna to nearby homes. Residents connected to that cable to get a clearer signal, and local TV shops often set up these systems to help sell more televisions. Over the past 70 years, cable has continually evolved to meet changing needs. Today, cable providers offer a wide range of services, including television, movie networks, local programming, phone service, internet access, and home security monitoring.

Market Footprint

The cable TV market footprint is shrinking. According to IHS Screen Digest (no longer exists), the number of U.S. pay-TV households fell by nearly 380,000 (2011), bringing the total number of cable subscribers “down” to 100.9 million(check here for current numbers.)This decline occurred during a sluggish economic recovery, suggesting that some of the drop reflects consumers tightening their budgets. Even so, 100 million subscribers represent a massive market, and at the current rate of decline, cable TV is likely to remain part of the landscape for the next decade.

Bandwidth

Because the coaxial cable used by cable TV provides much greater bandwidth than telephone lines, a cable and Internet modem can be used to achieve extremely fast access to the Web. This, combined with the fact that 100 million homes are already wired for cable TV, has made cable Internet service far superior to DSL. Access to the internet in my opinion was the greatest move by Cable companies to compete within the technology arena. Many proponents of the death of cable TV point to wireless technologies that will one day revolutionize how we access the web. I think that wireless technology is still looking for a viable business model, because it would have to compete with cable internet’s price point. Although once in place, it could surpass cable deployment, because of the minimum of infrastructure requirements.

Lobbyists

Cable-TV companies are entrenched within the Government on many levels. From Local to State to Federal – cable companies pad the pockets of many policymakers. They are tenacious when it comes to anti-cable legislation. They harness the power of information and are not ashamed to throw money at their cause. An example of this is reported by OpenSecrets.org , which tracks political contributions on the Net Neutrality issue. This legislation would not allow cable companies to block sites such as Google and Netflix (who provide video services and use a lot of bandwidth).

To sum it all up, cable TV is here to stay. Cable is 70 years strong - they know the market, and they own it. The companies adapt to social and technological trends, and they drive policy creation in Washington. They have a solid product offering, and they are entrenched in your home with their own coaxial (or fiber) connection. And in my opinion, it’s not a bad thing. Internet video is growing and it will definitely one day become a formidable competitor to cableTV. But if I were you, I wouldn’t bet your “bundle” on it.

Thomas Y. Lynch

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